반도체의 늪에 빠진 코스피, '서킷브레이커'가 경고하는 시장의 민낯 > K-wave Trends

The trigger for this plunge was the accompanying plunge in semiconductor stocks on Wall Street in the United States. Along with concerns about a bubble in U.S. technology stocks, fear of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift hit the market, and this spread to large-cap stocks in the Korean stock market. Semiconductor stocks, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, have been driving the index as market leaders, but paradoxically, because their dominance was so strong, they became an anchor that pulled down the entire market in a down market. In particular, it was a shock to investors that SK Hynix broke the psychological support line of 2 million won and Samsung Electronics also plunged by more than 9%. As foreign investors turned to large-scale selling and left, the market lost its strength and fell by more than 8%, entering a forced cooling period called a temporary suspension of trading.

One of the fundamental causes of this crisis is the ‘extreme focus on semiconductors.’ In recent months, the KOSPI market has been virtually an ‘alienated market’ except for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. In fact, looking at the market data for the past two weeks, we see a strange phenomenon in which the number of stocks that fell exceeded the number of stocks that rose even though the index rose. This means that investment funds were concentrated only in the narrow channel of large-cap semiconductor stocks, while other industries were completely ignored. Experts point out that these two stocks are not just market leaders, but are included as the underlying assets of numerous financial products and ETFs, pointing out the structural vulnerability of a single industry monopolizing the risk of the entire market.

Another major factor that has deepened market distortion is the change in ETF investment patterns of individual investors. The days when foreign supply and demand determined the direction of the index are over, and now a structure in which individual funds mechanically purchase large-cap stocks through ETFs has been established. When an individual purchases a domestic stock ETF, securities firms must purchase the underlying assets of the ETF in large quantities to provide liquidity. In this process, market volatility grew further as 'mechanical buying' was repeated, with funds flowing into Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the stocks with the highest market capitalization. In particular, as the proportion of recently introduced single-stock leveraged and inverse ETFs exceeds 50%, the market has become unstable, swayed more by speculative demand than fundamentals.

As the market landscape is rapidly changing, the market capitalization ranking table is also fluctuating. Riding on the AI ​​boom, affiliates such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics and SK Square emerged as the core of the semiconductor supply chain and recorded remarkable growth within the rankings, while the secondary battery, shipbuilding, and defense sectors that led the market last year lost their strength and were pushed down the rankings. This is an indicator of how quickly investors move money chasing growth, but also warns how easily money can exit when a particular theme ends. Now, KOSPI has completely transformed from a traditional manufacturing-oriented market to a volatile market dependent on specific keywords such as AI and semiconductors.

The departure of foreign investors is also a variable that cannot be ignored. Even though KOSPI showed an upward trend this year, foreigners net sold a huge amount of funds exceeding 100 trillion won. This is the result of a combination of a surge in oil prices due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, concerns about the Korean market's dependence on energy imports, and the desire to take profits on semiconductor stocks that have already risen sufficiently. Although individuals have supported the market by filling the void left by foreigners, high-risk ETF products favored by individuals are becoming a catalyst that amplifies fear when the market falls. In the end, foreigners' cool-headed capital and individuals' emotional capital are colliding, and our stock market is reaching a level never experienced before.