Reversal of a country with a large population and hope for local areas: A clue to the upheaval of the global population landscape and a rebound in birth rates. > News

A recent report from the Indian Census Bureau heralds a key shift in the global population landscape. It is a very symbolic event that India's total fertility rate, which boasted a population of 1.5 billion and was the driving force of economic growth, fell to 1.9, below the Maginot line of 2.1 to maintain population. India, which in the past was concerned about overpopulation enough to implement mandatory population control policies, is now facing a sharp decline in birth rates due to social changes such as improving women's education level and expanding the availability of contraception. In particular, as the infant mortality rate improved from 30 in 2019 to 24 in 2024, one of the main reasons is that the past urgency to have more children has been diluted. In addition, the increasing burden of education costs due to urbanization and rising prices has become a catalyst for fundamentally changing the values ​​regarding childbirth throughout Indian society.

On the other hand, Korea's Chungcheongbuk-do and Jeollanam-do provinces recently showed new possibilities in overcoming low birth rates by showing that the total fertility rate in the first quarter recently recovered to the 1 person level for the first time in five years or maintained the highest level in the country. Chungcheongbuk-do recorded a total fertility rate of 1.14 in the first quarter, exceeding the 1-person mark for the first time in five years, and Jeonnam also maintained its first place in the country with 1.30, achieving a significant increase in the number of births compared to the previous year. This rebound is not simply the result of luck, but is interpreted as the result of aggressive and practical support measures at the local government level. In the case of Jeonnam, basic birth income paid monthly for 18 years, expansion of public postpartum care centers, and full medical support for infertile couples played a major role. This serves as strong evidence that the downward curve of the birth rate can be broken when local governments consistently implement support policies that are highly felt.

However, experts agree that rather than getting carried away with this short-term rebound, a sophisticated strategy is needed to ensure sustainability. As can be seen in the case of North Chungcheong Province, the pattern of temporarily rising in the first quarter and then falling again from the second quarter has been repeated over the past five years, so it is still too early to judge whether this rebound is a trend change. In particular, considering the time lag between an increase in the number of marriages leading to childbirth, detailed analysis of detailed statistics directly related to childbirth, such as the increase in age at first marriage, infertility procedures, and childcare leave utilization rates, should be a priority. In addition, if it is not accompanied by a childcare infrastructure that can substantially improve the quality of life of families raising children, beyond a simple cash support policy, and a change in corporate culture for work-family balance, there is a high risk that only a temporary recovery in figures will occur.

The essence of the population problem is not simply the number of children being born, but how well a society can stably accommodate future generations. As India's example shows, economic leap forward is accompanied by changes in population structure, and the burden of education costs and rising child support costs that arise in the process have become common challenges around the world. The customized support policies pursued by local governments in Korea suggest the direction in which we should move amidst this global trend. Now, the national and local governments need to go beyond fragmented policies and take an integrated approach to improve the overall structure of society, including housing, employment, and education, so that young people can perceive marriage and childbirth as optional happiness rather than a burden in life. The population crisis is an opportunity, and how we respond will determine the prosperity of future generations.