Peace in the Strait of Hormuz, the complex calculations behind it and the uncertain future > News

The core of this agreement is the change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz contained in the previous memorandum of understanding (MOU) to be signed in Geneva, Switzerland on the 19th. U.S. President Trump is focusing on showing off his international leadership by pledging to immediately lift the maritime blockade and to 'freely open' the strait. However, Iran's interpretation is quite different. Iranian semi-official media reported that the previous agreement specified that Iran and Oman were responsible for managing maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that Iran had secured the right to collect fair tolls after the 60-day grace period. These two sides' conflicting claims are likely to spark another technical and diplomatic dispute over the operation of the strait in the future.

The war of nerves over leadership in strait management goes beyond a simple fee issue and is a point where Iran's economic sovereignty and America's strategic hegemony collide. After the 60-day free passage period, Iran is presenting a specific blueprint to provide practical maritime services such as sea route safety, environmental protection, and insurance services and generate revenue in return. On the other hand, key U.S. administration officials, including Vice President Vance, appear to dismiss Iran's claims, maintaining that they still expect the long-term free opening of the strait. This ultimately means that the ambiguous term 'maritime services' specified in the agreement could become a pretext for diplomatic conflict at any time depending on future interpretation.

The immediate positive effects of the previous agreement are clear. As more than 600 ships and 60 million barrels of crude oil, which have been trapped for months, prepare to be released to the market, international oil prices and the stability of the global supply chain have turned on. The international community, including the Korean government, welcomed this agreement, evaluating it as a significant step forward in restoring peace in the region. In particular, our government strongly urges the safe resumption of navigation for our ships passing through the strait and hopes that this agreement will be not simply a temporary ceasefire but the foundation for sustainable peace. However, ship tracking data in the field has not yet shown any noticeable large-scale movements, so careful observation is still needed before actual opening is achieved.

The biggest barrier on the road to peace is the chronic problem of Iran's nuclear program and sanctions against Iran. Although this agreement to end the war succeeded in stopping the war, the key issues of limiting nuclear development and easing sanctions have been postponed to follow-up negotiations for 60 days after signing. Although President Trump emphasizes that Iran has agreed to permanently give up its nuclear weapons, the deep distrust and differences between the two sides remain difficult to overcome. The end of the war without a solution to the nuclear issue is like a castle built on sand, and if follow-up negotiations are difficult, there is a risk that geopolitical risks in the Middle East will be reignited at any time.