코스피의 거센 파도, AI 랠리의 끝인가 새로운 도약의 서막인가 > K-wave Trends

The rapid volatility experienced by the domestic stock market recently is the result of profit-taking selling in the U.S. semiconductor sector. So far, AI-related stocks, led by NVIDIA, have taken the lead in the market, drawing a steep upward curve, but as Broadcom's sales guidance failed to meet the market's high expectations, investor caution was maximized. As the possibility of Chinese memory companies expanding supply was highlighted, subtle cracks began to appear in the AI ​​optimism that had supported the market so far. However, experts tend to interpret this as a healthy adjustment process to resolve short-term overheating and digest sales, rather than a loss of the industry's essential growth potential. Nevertheless, it is an undeniable fact that the supply and demand that was concentrated on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is ebbing away, increasing downward pressure on the entire KOSPI.

The biggest trigger in terms of macroeconomics is the announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in May. As solid employment data paradoxically stimulates the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the market is facing fears of a reignited inflation. In particular, geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are encouraging the rise in international oil prices, so if the price index exceeds expectations, the uncertainty of monetary policy is bound to increase further. This ultimately causes the dollar to strengthen, resulting in a vicious cycle that accelerates the outflow of foreign funds from emerging market stock markets. Investors are now forced to face the harsh reality of how long the tight environment will continue, rather than the sweet expectations of interest rate cuts.

Space This mega-IPO, which is expected to raise $75 billion, the largest ever, is likely to serve as a catalyst for funds from existing leading stocks to move into new sectors. The emergence of giant companies with a market capitalization of more than $1.7 trillion will reorganize the overall supply and demand landscape of technology stocks, and it is especially difficult to avoid short-term capital outflow in markets with a high proportion of foreign investment, such as the Korean stock market. Although the new theme of the space industry may establish itself as a future growth engine following AI, it seems inevitable that market volatility will increase due to large-scale capital movements in the early stages of listing.

The supply and demand situation within the domestic stock market is also not easy. Recently, individual investors have made large purchases through leveraged ETFs, but are having a painful time with the index plummeting and massive valuation losses. In particular, there is a high risk that volatility in the derivatives market will increase as the simultaneous expiration date of futures and options overlaps with semi-annual rebalancing. Nevertheless, it is a hopeful factor that global big tech companies, including Alphabet, are still investing hundreds of billions of dollars to expand AI infrastructure. This suggests that demand for the Korean semiconductor value chain is a structural trend rather than a temporary phenomenon, supporting the logic that temporary price adjustments can actually be an opportunity to buy at low prices.

Now is the time for market participants to have a flexible strategy to respond to ‘events’ rather than the larger framework of ‘index’. With the won weakening deepening, with the exchange rate threatening the 1,560 won level, a conservative approach is effective until there is a clear signal to stop foreign net selling. However, when the second quarter earnings season begins in earnest after mid-June, there is a high possibility that an earnings market will unfold once again, with companies' fundamentals driving stock prices. Therefore, rather than participating in excessive chase buying or selling, patience is needed to check the direction of macroeconomic indicators while maintaining weight on core blue chip stocks such as stocks benefiting from AI infrastructure. The economic data pouring in this week will be an important criterion to distinguish between the noise and essence of the market.