벼랑 끝에 선 오세훈의 승부수: '명태균 리스크'와 정치적 명운 > K-wave Trends

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon completely denied the allegations surrounding him through his appearance at this trial and instead poured out sharp criticism towards the investigative agency. He strongly denounced that this investigation, planned by Special Prosecutor Min Joong-ki's team, had political intentions to influence the election results, and emphasized that he was a victim of a crime. According to Mayor Oh's claim, the opinion poll provided by Myung Tae-gyun and Kang Hye-kyung's group was false data with the sample itself manipulated, and this has already been proven through confessions in court. Therefore, the logic is that it is in line with the rule of law for the investigative agency not to indict the person, but rather to severely punish Myung Tae-gyun and his group for fraud, who misled public opinion with false facts.

The core issue of the trial depends on how to interpret the quid pro quo of the opinion poll data received from Myung Tae-gyun during the April 7, 2021 Seoul mayoral by-election. The prosecution and special prosecutor believe that Mayor Oh commissioned Myeong to conduct an opinion poll and paid the cost of 33 million won to his sponsor Kim Han-jung through his close associate, former Deputy Mayor for Political Affairs Kang Cheol-won. On the other hand, Mayor Oh acknowledges that he met with Mr. Myeong, but protests that he never officially requested a public opinion poll. Former Deputy Mayor Kang Cheol-won is also forming a defensive shield by continuing to testify in court to the effect that he did not request a public opinion poll from Mr. Myeong, but that it was only the result of the process of verifying what kind of person he was and had nothing to do with paying the costs.

In a situation where judicial risk is at its peak, Mayor Oh's remarks are interpreted as a strategy to minimize the political impact of the results of future trials. If a fine of more than 1 million won is confirmed for violating the Political Fund Act, Mayor Oh will immediately lose his position as mayor and suffer the fatal blow of being deprived of the right to run for office for the next five years. In this situation, while waiting for the court's decision, Mayor Oh continues to highlight the unfairness of the attacks against him, considering the direction of public opinion. In particular, the expression he mentioned, 'Special Prosecutor Min Joong-ki's malicious investigation', can easily be interpreted as highly political rhetoric aimed at rallying supporters and giving political legitimacy to the judiciary's ruling.

Meanwhile, the overall political atmosphere is also as urgent as Mayor Oh's trial. President Lee Jae-myung accepted the result of the government's approval rating plummeting by more than 9 percentage points after the recent local elections, and expressed his intention to bow to the people and calm public sentiment in a humble manner. The results of public opinion polls from major organizations such as KSOI and Chowon C&I suggest that the ruling party is experiencing a turmoil in public sentiment as it performed below expectations in the Seoul mayoral election, a key battleground. Amid mixed evaluations of the government's efforts to 'eradicate insurrectionists' and 'economic recovery', the results of Mayor Oh's trial are expected to act as a significant variable that will have a direct or indirect impact on the morality of the ruling party and the driving force behind state affairs.

The court plans to conduct final arguments and sentence after completing the examination of Mayor Oh as the defendant on the 17th. According to the principle of speedy trial under the Special Prosecution Act, the first trial verdict must be made within six months of indictment, so it is highly likely that this case will be resolved quickly until the Supreme Court ruling within the year. Mayor Oh's fate will now be decided based on the weight of evidence and legal interpretation, but the influence of political brokers and the opacity of public opinion polls revealed in the process have left a painful homework for our political circles. Political attention is focused on the Seoul Central District Court to see whether Mayor Oh Se-hoon will be able to prove his innocence and overcome the political crisis before the court of law, or whether the judiciary's strict standards will put an end to his political career.