폭풍전야의 글로벌 증시: 금리 공포와 중동의 화약고가 만든 잔혹한 6월 > K-wave Trends

The key driving force that has recently shaken the New York stock market is the steep correction of AI semiconductor technology stocks. The semiconductor index, which has led the market and shown an explosive rise of more than 70% over the past few months, now faces a realistic barrier called valuation burden. In particular, Broadcom's disappointing sales outlook and Micron Technology's sharp decline have led investors to question the sustainability of the AI ​​rally. Experts analyze this phenomenon as a typical phenomenon of a cyclical market in which funds move from growth stocks to value stocks along with a temporary weakening of momentum. As the upward trend has become steeper, investors' desire to take profits has also become stronger than ever.

Geopolitical risk is acting as another detonator that increases stock market volatility. As the armed conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies, tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have increased anxiety about the energy supply chain. Although energy authorities tried to appease the market by citing a recovery in transportation, news of the US military's retaliatory airstrikes immediately increased upward pressure on oil prices. This uncertainty in the Middle East situation is not just a matter of oil prices, but is creating a vicious cycle that stimulates inflationary pressures again and dampens expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. As the preference for safe assets strengthens, the market's fear index, VIX, is hovering around the highest level of the year, representing investors' anxiety.

The May CPI announcement, which attracted the attention of the global capital market, is a decisive compass that will determine the future fate of the market. Wall Street predicts that this CPI will rise by 4.2% compared to the previous year, which is like a warning light that the price rise may become steeper again. If actual indicators exceed expectations, the Fed could face a dilemma of having to delay cutting interest rates or even consider raising them further to curb inflation. In particular, this indicator, which will be released just a week before the June FOMC regular meeting, will send a strong message to policymakers, which will immediately serve as a variable that determines the rise in government bond yields and the depth of the stock market adjustment.

The Korean stock market is bearing the brunt of this wave of external negative news and is experiencing extreme volatility. Selling by foreign investors for 23 consecutive trading days dragged the KOSPI below the 7,000 level, and market anxiety reached its peak to the extent that a selling sidecar was activated for two consecutive days. The sharp decline in semiconductor stocks with top market capitalization, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is a result of the outflow of foreign funds and the sentiment of investors rushing to secure cash ahead of large-scale IPOs such as SpaceX. In addition, the won-dollar exchange rate has surpassed the 1,520 won range, continuing a vicious cycle that encourages foreigners to sell due to concerns about exchange rate losses. The domestic stock market, which has overlapped with the expiration date of futures and options, is expected to go through a period of chaos where it is difficult to find a clear direction for the time being.