살얼음판 걷는 뉴욕증시: 금리 인상 공포와 AI 버블 논란의 기로에서 > K-wave Trends

The biggest pressure currently weighing on the market is by far the fear of interest rate hikes. As the recently released non-agricultural employment indicator for May recorded a ‘surprise’, exceeding market expectations by more than twice, concerns are growing that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will soon turn to tightening. In particular, the prevailing view is that the May consumer price index (CPI), which will be announced on the 10th, will exceed the 4% level for the first time in three years, which will test the Fed's ability to control inflation. If core prices continue to rise, the market is likely to accept the scenario of an interest rate increase within the year as a fait accompli. This will go beyond simply rising government bond yields and will act as a strong downside factor that will fundamentally re-evaluate the valuation of technology stocks that have continued to rally despite the controversy over their overvaluation.

Amid this macroeconomic uncertainty, Oracle's earnings announcement is expected to become a litmus test to determine the survival of AI theme stocks. Oracle is successfully transforming its business structure from a traditional database company to a core pillar of cloud and AI infrastructure, and this quarter's results are an indicator of whether companies' actual investments in artificial intelligence remain active. The market is paying attention to Oracle's remaining performance obligation (RPO) and sales growth rate in the cloud sector, and in particular, the performance of contracts with large customers such as OpenAI is expected to resolve doubts about AI profitability. The fact that major investment banks, including Bank of America, raised Oracle's target stock price and maintained a buy opinion reflects their confidence that the vague anxiety that permeates the software industry can be allayed through performance numbers.

Meanwhile, another hot topic in the market this week is SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). Space Investors are considering a supply/demand shift by selling existing stocks to put more weight on a promising asset called SpaceX, and this is a variable that could deepen the fall of technology stocks that have already entered a correction phase. In addition, AI server-related stocks such as Super Microcomputer have announced large-scale capital increase plans and their stock prices have plummeted. There is also a phenomenon in which individual companies' funding issues are dampening investment sentiment for the overall AI theme.

From a historical perspective, the current plunge is very similar to the correction pattern during the dot-com bubble. Even at that time, Nasdaq repeated several crashes and adjustments during its rise, but in the end, innovative companies supported by fundamentals moved toward higher peaks after the adjustment. Experts analyze that the current decline is more in the nature of relieving overheating and controlling supply and demand rather than worsening corporate performance, and advise that a trend rebound can be sought if major indices, including KOSPI, receive support near the 7,000 level. However, the rapid rise in exchange rates and the continuous outflow of foreign funds are still factors holding back the market, so investors are required to take a conservative approach by reducing leverage and securing the proportion of cash.