긴축의 파고와 트럼프의 압박: 6월 FOMC를 둘러싼 글로벌 금융시장의 딜레마 > K-wave Trends

The biggest trigger for this market shock is the US employment indicator and inflation pressure, which far exceeded expectations. Last May, the number of non-farm payrolls increased far beyond experts' expectations, demonstrating the strong resilience of the labor market. Ironically, this led directly to the argument that the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates higher and longer. In particular, rising energy prices due to geopolitical risks such as the Iran war are pushing up personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the consumer price index (CPI), increasing concerns about fixed prices. Experts say that these indicators provide a strong basis for the Federal Reserve to abandon its existing interest rate cut bias and strengthen its hawkish austerity stance.

Another challenge lies ahead of Chairman Kevin Worthy, who has the authority to decide on monetary policy: President Donald Trump's all-out pressure. President Trump has publicly stated that raising interest rates while the economy is growing will actually hinder success, and is strongly calling for interest rates to be lowered. He continues to make comments that effectively undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, saying that raising interest rates will pour cold water on the economy at a time when there are many tasks to be resolved, such as national debt and increased defense spending. These external political pressures are deepening the complexity of policy decisions between the principled monetary policy that Chairman Wash seeks to pursue and market expectations.

Stock market experts interpret the current slump not as the beginning of a general decline, but as a temporary increase in volatility due to a combination of short-term overheating and macro shocks. The KOSPI index fell sharply at one point, causing panic selling, but the prevailing analysis is that this was the result of a combination of Broadcombal's performance guidance shock and the burden of supply and demand on futures and option expiration dates rather than damage to the fundamentals of the AI ​​industry. In particular, the solid performance of semiconductor and AI-related stocks continues to serve as a support for the market's downward trend. Experts advise that rather than selling due to excessive fear, a split buying strategy based on performance is effective and that the volatility of the next one to two weeks should be used as an opportunity.

Ahead of the FOMC scheduled for the 16th and 17th, the market's attention is turning to the dot plot and Summary of Economic Outlook (SEP) rather than the interest rate decision itself. Currently, the market virtually assumes that the interest rate freeze is a given, but if the Federal Reserve hints at the possibility of an interest rate hike in the future through a statement or press conference, the market is likely to face another big wave. In particular, if the May CPI index to be announced on the 10th exceeds expectations, fears of austerity could reach a peak. The market is paying close attention to whether the Federal Reserve will completely withdraw its easing policy, how far it will revise market expectations, and what kind of monetary policy message Chairman Wash will deliver in the first test.