흔들리는 AI 신화와 서학개미의 딜레마: 고금리 파고를 넘는 미국 증시의 오늘 > K-wave Trends

The key keywords currently penetrating the US stock market are ‘interest rate caution’ and ‘AI valuation reevaluation’. As the 10-year government bond yield exceeds 4.5% and the burden of discount rates on technology stocks increases, profit-taking sales are pouring into AI semiconductor beneficiary stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom, which have led the rise. In particular, as employment indicators came out stronger than expected, expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve receded, which served as a catalyst for cooling investor sentiment. In this environment, the market is not simply pursuing growth potential, but is also rigorously verifying whether the company's actual performance and guidance meet high expectations. As a result, when the earnings announcements of companies such as Broadcom do not meet market expectations, there is a sensitive reaction, with the entire semiconductor sector plummeting.

Geopolitical risk and oil price volatility are variables that further amplify market uncertainty. Heightened tensions between the United States and Iran stimulated international oil prices, raising expected inflation, which in turn created a vicious cycle that led to rising government bond yields. Rising oil prices are adding to the inflation burden, which in turn increases the possibility of prolonged high interest rates, dealing a direct blow to portfolios centered on growth stocks. Nevertheless, some in the market note that the pattern of technology stocks quickly rebounding every time oil prices turn downward is repeating itself. This suggests that investors have still not betrayed their faith in the long-term growth potential of AI infrastructure investments and technology stocks in general, and that there is a strong influx of low-price buyers whenever short-term external shocks ease.

Korean investors’ portfolio composition is in direct conflict with the current market environment and is enduring high volatility. Seohak ants have concentrated enormous funds on leveraged products that maximize the rise of the Nasdaq, such as Tesla, QQQ, TQQQ, and SOXL. This type of aggressive position provides high profits when the market is trending upward, but it has the fatal disadvantage of snowballing losses due to the leverage structure when the index falls significantly or moves sideways in a short period of time. In response to this, an increasing number of investors have recently turned to defensive assets, such as the Schwab US Dividend ETF (SCHD), or are adopting a strategy that mixes offense and defense. The strengthening of regulations on basic deposits of leveraged ETFs implemented by financial authorities has become a factor limiting access to such investments, but the prevailing assessment is that it is fundamentally insufficient to quench Korean investors' thirst for dollar assets and US growth stocks.

Looking at the overall market trend, despite the short-term correction, long-term confidence in the US stock market remains solid. In June, profit-taking movements were detected, such as a slight decrease in the storage amount, but the fact that the storage amount was maintained at a historically high level shows that investors have not completely left the market. In particular, the structural demand for the AI ​​ecosystem, led by NVIDIA, is not just a mere expectation, but is being proven by the actual expansion of investment by companies. Therefore, the current correction is likely to be interpreted as a process of 'healthy reset' beyond a technical rebound. Investors will now be paying close attention to price indicators such as CPI and PPI to see whether a semiconductor-led rebound accompanied by lower interest rates can begin again.