S&P 500의 문턱과 AI의 파도: 월가 지형도를 바꾸는 거대 자본의 셈법 > K-wave Trends

Space S&P Dow Jones Index has made it clear that it will apply strict standards without exception even to very large newly listed stocks. In particular, the requirement to achieve a surplus for four consecutive quarters is a huge barrier for aerospace or AI companies that require large-scale upfront investment. As Evercore ISI's analysis suggests, if Space This suggests that the past case of Tesla joining the index 10 years after listing may be repeated.

On the other hand, Marvell Technology, a leading player in AI semiconductors, recently received market attention by receiving the honor of being included in the index. This is interpreted as an indicator that proves that the customized semiconductor market for AI data centers is leading to actual profitability. However, it is important to note that inclusion in the S&P 500 does not guarantee an unconditional increase in stock prices. Analyzing past cases, there were frequent cases where stock prices soared due to expectations just before incorporation, but when incorporation was confirmed, the returns fell below the market rate due to the disappearance of materials. This is because the 'front running' phenomenon, in which investors predict index inclusion in advance and make preemptive purchases, has become common, and the effects of inclusion are being reflected much earlier than in the past.

This trend surrounding index inclusion is also changing investors’ asset movement strategies. Global investors, including Seohak Ant, are shifting their focus from a portfolio centered on the stable S&P 500 to the Nasdaq index, which has many innovative companies. This is a result that reflects the desire for future-oriented companies such as SpaceX and OpenAI. However, the market is still reacting sensitively to geopolitical risks such as the situation in the Middle East and the announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is closely related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Macroeconomic uncertainty is a variable that takes precedence over the growth potential of innovative companies and serves as a key factor in determining the success or failure of investments.

Political intervention, such as the discussion on AI socialism, is also emerging as a variable in the future market. The argument that the public should share the shares of companies such as Open AI is spreading across both the left and right sides in the United States, throwing new concerns into companies' valuation models. This discourse raises fundamental questions about how to distribute the wealth created by a company in a situation where a company's profitability is the absolute criterion for inclusion in the index. In the end, we must recognize that inclusion in the index is not simply a matter of supply and demand, but is a complex result of a company's essential fundamentals and the political and economic external environment they face.