다시 시작된 ‘긴축의 시계’…ECB의 금리 인상이 던진 경고장 > K-wave Trends

The core background of this rate hike is the energy crisis intensified by the Iran war and the resulting inflationary pressure. Since the conflict began at the end of February, international oil and natural gas prices have skyrocketed, causing the Eurozone's consumer price inflation to reach 3.2%, well above the ECB's 2% target. Inflation is no longer a temporary phenomenon but is spreading across services and goods, and the ECB appears to have made a desperate judgment that it must respond preemptively before inflation becomes entrenched. The experience of being criticized for a slow initial response during the Ukraine war, which allowed inflation to rise, significantly influenced this decision, and it is also a desperate measure to maintain credibility as a central bank.

In this monetary policy meeting, the ECB shifted to a full-scale tightening mode by raising all three major policy rates, including the deposit rate, by 0.25 percentage points. This measure makes revisions to the Eurozone's economic outlook inevitable; the ECB significantly raised its consumer price inflation forecast for this year from 2.6% to 3.0%. On the other hand, it lowered its economic growth forecast from 0.9% to 0.8%, signaling that the fear of stagflation, where high inflation and low growth coexist, is weighing on the real economy. President Lagarde emphasized that the decision was unanimous and made it clear that it was an 'insurance hike' that prioritizes the fundamental goal of curbing inflation over threats to economic growth.

The ECB's move has sent a major shock to the global financial market as it is the fastest response among G7 central banks. The US Federal Reserve is also seeing signs of reignited inflation as both the producer price index and consumer price index are surging, leading to a dominant market view that the Fed's rate hike clock will also be moved forward. As Europe pulled the trigger on tightening first, the issue of interest rate gaps in other countries, including South Korea, has also surfaced. The gap between the ECB and South Korea's base rate has narrowed to 0.25 percentage points, and the interest rate gap with the US has also compressed to the low 1% range, increasing the possibility of greater volatility in global capital flows.

Market experts agree that this hike will not be a one-time event. Major investment banks like Société Générale predict at least two more hikes within this year, which is expected to act as a significant burden on the Eurozone economy. Some raise concerns that this tightening, carried out when the labor market is stagnant and consumer demand is weak, could actually accelerate an economic downturn. In particular, as the instability of the energy supply chain is difficult to resolve in the short term, there is also a critical view that there are limits to controlling supply-side inflation through interest rate hikes alone.