골드만삭스의 경고장과 트럼프의 압박: 요동치는 글로벌 금융시장의 진실 > K-wave Trends

Timothy Moe, Chief Asia-Pacific Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, recently diagnosed the KOSPI's sharp decline as a "healthy technical correction." He explained that the fundamental strength of Korean companies remains solid and that this drop is a process of catching one's breath following a rapid ascent. In particular, he analyzed that the market's excessive reliance on aggressive derivative products, such as leveraged ETFs, exacerbated the decline. In other words, it is merely a temporary shock caused by the liquidation of speculative buying, not a break in the long-term upward trend. Goldman Sachs remains confident, maintaining that the super-cycle in the Korean semiconductor market is still valid and setting a target of 12,000 points for the KOSPI.

However, behind this optimism looms a massive dark cloud: the fear of U.S.-led austerity. Citing the surprising resilience of the U.S. labor market, Goldman Sachs has completely withdrawn its forecast for interest rate cuts that were expected this year. The timing of the cuts, initially projected for late 2026 and early 2027, has been significantly pushed back to mid-2027 or later. While this proves that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand high interest rates, it also suggests that the war against inflation is far from over. Goldman Sachs analyzed that with employment figures exceeding market expectations, the Federal Reserve has no choice but to prioritize inflation control over interest rate cuts.

The gap between Wall Street and President Trump regarding interest rate cuts is deepening by the day. President Trump has been openly pressuring the Fed to cut rates, arguing that raising rates while the economy is growing is akin to punishing the economy. He believes the current high-interest rate regime is eroding the nation's growth potential and strongly desires a low-interest rate system below 1%. This political tug-of-war, occurring ahead of the inauguration of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, has reignited debates over the independence of the Federal Reserve. The market is closely watching how Trump's intense pressure will act as a variable in future FOMC policy decisions.

Market anxiety is not limited to changes in interest rate forecasts but is unfolding in more complex ways. The ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) boom is generating massive capital demand, which is cited as another factor prolonging the high-interest rate environment. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if AI investment demand remains strong, the argument for maintaining high borrowing costs could gain traction. Furthermore, geopolitical risks, such as the war in the Middle East, are fueling energy price hikes and adding to inflationary pressure. These complex factors are creating an environment where it is increasingly difficult for the Fed to implement interest rate cuts.

While Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a Fed rate hike compared to its previous assessment, it still maintains a freeze as its base scenario rather than a hike. It has lowered its unemployment rate forecast, suggesting the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, but it has not let its guard down regarding inflation control. The bond market is already reacting sensitively, with the Nasdaq index plummeting as it partially prices in the possibility of a rate hike within the year. Ultimately, the market seems destined to continue its tightrope walk between the axes of "growth and employment" and "prices and austerity." Investors are now required to adopt a cautious stance, verifying performance-based fundamentals rather than relying solely on the expectation of interest rate cuts.