폭풍 뒤의 반등, 기술주 시장은 다시 ‘건전한 리셋’을 꿈꾼다 > K-wave Trends

The core engine of this rebound in the New York stock market was undoubtedly the spectacular return of the semiconductor sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which had frozen market sentiment with a sharp drop last Friday, proved its resilience by surging more than 5.8% in a single day. Micron, in particular, saw a nearly 10% jump as if washing away the shock of the previous trading day, and Intel also drew strong buying interest following news that it had been selected as a production partner for Google's next-generation AI chips. Marvell Technology also recorded a rise nearing 10%, fueled by expectations of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index and positive remarks from Nvidia's CEO. This trend proves that the market still maintains strong confidence in AI-related stocks and that there is sufficient standby capital ready to enter aggressively whenever the stock price undergoes a correction.

On the other hand, Apple, which had been the center of market expectations, saw its stock price remain weak despite unveiling its next-generation AI voice assistant 'Siri' at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) held this week. Investors gave a cold assessment that the AI features presented by Apple were somewhat insufficient to meet the market's high expectations, which led to profit-taking. This is not just an issue for Apple, but a point that shows how high the market's expectations for a "perfect AI company" have become. It suggests that the market has entered an era where simply putting forward the keyword "AI" is no longer enough, and companies must prove substantial profit models and innovative user experiences to defend their stock prices.

Geopolitical risk was also a key factor increasing market volatility, but fortunately, the worst-case scenario was avoided as Iran and Israel announced a cessation of hostilities. As both sides decided to halt further armed conflict, international oil prices, which had soared by more than 5% during the day, significantly reduced their gains, bringing relief to investor sentiment. However, experts warn that the Middle East conflict has not been completely resolved, and if the situation prolongs, it could stimulate inflationary pressure. Oil price instability can directly hit price indicators, and this is highly likely to act as a detonator that exacerbates market uncertainty in conjunction with the Fed's interest rate policy.

The controversy over index inclusion rules surrounding SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) is another hot potato in the market. Major index providers such as MSCI, Nasdaq, and FTSE Russell are quickly revising their rules to allow for the early inclusion of mega-corporations like SpaceX, opening a path for "capital flow." On the other hand, the S&P 500 maintains a conservative stance by keeping a strict one-year waiting period after listing, which is interpreted as a measure conscious of the controversy over the overvaluation of newly listed stocks. If SpaceX, with a corporate value of 2,700 trillion won, is included in major indices, a massive inflow of funds through passive funds is expected, which is expected to be an important variable determining future market liquidity flow.

Wall Street experts define the recent market correction as a "healthy reset" and maintain a positive outlook. Market strategists, including Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson, analyze that companies' solid earnings growth and the robust fundamentals of the U.S. economy are offsetting geopolitical risks. Citigroup also raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index based on this improvement in corporate earnings, supporting the bull market. Of course, the massive waves of the May CPI release and the Fed's interest rate decision remain, but the market seems to be already digesting these variables and preparing for a more mature phase of growth.