K-바이오의 흔들리는 질주, 주가 급락 이면에 숨겨진 ‘펀더멘털의 진실’ > K-wave Trends

The primary trigger for this stock plunge was an external shock combining the correction in the U.S. AI semiconductor sector with geopolitical risks from the Middle East. Concerns over funding burdens and slowing growth for global big tech firms like Nvidia and Broadcom have dampened overall market sentiment, making growth stocks—previously criticized for being overvalued—the primary targets for selling. In particular, KOSDAQ heavyweights Alteogen and LegoChem Biosciences saw their declines accelerate as institutional and foreign investors pulled out. The core background of this decline is not merely a company-specific issue, but the maximization of risk-aversion sentiment amid soaring exchange rates and a high-interest-rate environment. In fact, a clear "sector rotation" is being observed in the market, with funds moving toward semiconductor and IT equipment stocks that offer higher earnings visibility.

However, contrary to the stock price decline, assessments suggest that the core technological prowess and business achievements of these companies have actually become more solid than before. For Alteogen, the biggest risk factor—the patent dispute in the U.S.—has been resolved with the victory of its partner, Merck (MSD), clearing away legal uncertainty. With the patent invalidation trial filed by competitor Halozyme being dismissed or ruled against, the exclusive status of Alteogen’s subcutaneous (SC) platform "ALT-B4" has been further strengthened. As Keytruda SC sales continue to cruise along with simplified prescription procedures, the large-scale sales milestones expected over the coming years will serve as a strong pillar for the company’s financial health. The fact that the stock price plummeted despite the company’s strengthening fundamentals proves that the current market is reacting far too sensitively to supply-demand logic rather than fundamentals.

LegoChem Biosciences and ABL Bio are also focusing on essential growth, such as the smooth progress of their clinical pipelines and discussions on technology exports. LegoChem Biosciences is proving its global competitiveness by releasing clinical data, including complete remission results, in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) field. The Phase 3 clinical results in China scheduled for the second half of the year and the entry of new pipelines into clinical trials are highly likely to lead to concrete milestone achievements rather than mere expectations. ABL Bio is also continuing smooth collaborations with global big pharma companies like Sanofi and GSK, centered on its "Grabody" series, a blood-brain barrier (BBB) shuttle platform. Changes in the external environment have not slowed their R&D speed; rather, the prevailing analysis is that the stock price will quickly return to its rightful place the moment the trigger of technology transfer is pulled.

Looking at the flow of market funds, institutional investors are not selling off the entire sector but are adopting a thorough "selective strategy." While it is true that profit-taking sell-offs have poured out of some stocks like Alteogen and LegoChem Biosciences, buying interest is consistently flowing into biotech companies where growth and earnings momentum are confirmed, such as Oscotec or HK inno.N. This means that institutions have not abandoned the biotech sector but are reorganizing their portfolios away from stocks that relied on vague expectations toward those backed by solid technology export achievements or clinical data. This shift in supply and demand can be interpreted as a healthy adjustment process that will lead to the improvement of the K-Bio market's constitution in the long term.

Meanwhile, the fever for technology exports (L&O) flowing through the biotech industry remains hot. The fact that the scale of technology exports signed by domestic companies has already exceeded 13 trillion won this year is proof that K-Bio is clearly recognized by global pharmaceutical companies as a partner in new drug development. Tangible results are emerging one after another in various areas, such as Hanmi Pharmaceutical's obesity treatment and D&D Pharmatech's MASH treatment, and additional contract discussions are in the concrete stages with several global partners. In particular, platform technologies such as subcutaneous formulation changes are seeing surging demand in line with pharmaceutical companies' product lifecycle extension strategies, leading to high expectations for additional contract signings by platform companies including Alteogen.