'롤러코스터' 장세의 역설: 한국 증시를 뒤흔드는 변동성의 실체와 과제 > K-wave Trends

The volatility indicator of the domestic stock market is currently at a warning light, and at the center of it all is the unusual phenomenon of frequent activation of 'sidecar'. According to statistics from the Korea Exchange, the number of sidecars activated in the stock market this year has already exceeded 20, which is an astonishing figure that accounts for a quarter of the total activation records since 2002. Since it is only a few times lower than the annual record set in 2008, when the financial crisis swept the world, market officials predict that there is a very high possibility that the all-time record will be broken before the first half of the year is even over. It is unprecedented in history that the cooling system has been in operation for six consecutive months, and this can be said to be a clear indicator of how unstable our stock market is currently operating.

This market anxiety goes beyond simply numerical records and is spreading to individual stocks and overall investment sentiment. The fact that the number of volatility mitigation devices (VI) activations has surged to 1.5 times the level at the time of the pandemic suggests that the trading behavior of investors participating in the market is very aggressive and preoccupied with realizing short-term profits. In particular, as all funds in the market are focused on large-cap semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the 'concentration phenomenon' in which minute-by-minute changes in supply and demand for these stocks determines the direction of the entire index has become entrenched. Excessive dependence on a specific industry ultimately exposed structural vulnerabilities that caused the entire market to collapse like dominoes when the company's stock price fluctuated. This, coupled with speculative trading by individual investors, resulted in further increase in intraday fluctuations.

As an external factor, geopolitical risks in the Middle East served as a catalyst to amplify market volatility. Whenever military tensions between the United States and Iran escalated, KOSPI and KOSDAQ faltered so much that a circuit breaker was triggered, clearly proving how sensitive our stock market is to external shocks. As the preference for safe assets strengthened, investors quickly showed a tendency to avoid risky assets, and this psychological turmoil combined with program trading led to temporary panic selling. Since the macroscopic variable of war is unpredictable, the domestic stock market is expected to react more violently than any other market whenever geopolitical issues arise in the future.

Meanwhile, one of the main culprits that further fueled market overheating and volatility is the emergence of single-stock semiconductor leverage and inverse products. These recently listed products attracted a lot of attention from individual investors and attracted large funds, but ultimately accelerated the 'wag the dog' phenomenon. When individuals aggressively purchase leveraged products, a structure was formed in which managers had to purchase additional spot and futures to hedge this, and in this process, stock prices were distorted to a greater extent than their actual value. Investors who jumped into high-risk products without sufficient understanding were exposed to the risk of loss due to slippage costs and rapid volatility, which had the side effect of encouraging speculative overheating rather than a healthy rise in the market.

Despite this chaotic market, technological growth centered on AI and robot industries still serves as a key driving force in the market. The fact that companies such as Hyulim Robot, Namu Technology, and Gigabis are attracting attention by repeatedly triggering VI during the day means that although the market as a whole is unstable, investors are constantly buying stocks that are riding the huge trend of 'AI infrastructure'. Expectations are rising that the expansion of the global AI ecosystem, led by NVIDIA, will bring tangible benefits to related equipment and solution companies. However, it is important to keep in mind that in a situation where these expectations lead to an excessive stock price premium, the stock price may boomerang into a sharp decline unless it is supported by actual performance improvement and order receipt.