롤러코스터에 올라탄 한국 증시: 기록적인 변동성이 시사하는 경고등 > K-wave Trends

According to statistics from the Korea Exchange, the number of sidecars activated in the KOSPI market in the first half of this year has already exceeded 20 times. This figure accounts for a quarter of the total number of triggers since statistics were compiled in 2002, and is close to the annual record of 26 in 2008, when the global financial crisis hit. In particular, the fact that the cooling device has been operating for six consecutive months means that the market is exposed to a constant state of instability beyond a temporary shock. The main reasons for this volatility are the rapid rise in indices centered on large-cap semiconductor stocks and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including the Iran-Israel war, and investors are experiencing extreme market volatility every day.

Market uncertainty is being replicated not only in the KOSPI but also in the KOSDAQ market. The KOSDAQ market has also experienced the most frequent trading suspensions since the 2008 financial crisis, with sidecars activated 11 times this year. In addition, the number of activations of volatility mitigation devices (VI) to prevent sudden changes in the prices of individual stocks exceeds 11,000 on average per month, which is 1.5 times the number during the COVID-19 pandemic. These indicators show that speculative buying forces and profit-taking selling forces are violently clashing throughout the market. The phenomenon of excessive concentration of supply and demand toward specific theme stocks or large-cap stocks is weakening the fundamental strength of the market and making the trading environment more unstable.

The reason for the maximized stock market volatility is the abnormally expanded influence of major semiconductor companies, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. As the structure in which minute-by-minute changes in supply and demand of these large-cap stocks, which account for an overwhelming proportion of market capitalization, determine the ups and downs of the entire index has become entrenched, a strange phenomenon is occurring in which the stability of the entire market is dependent on the conditions of specific stocks. In addition, it is pointed out that recently listed single-stock leveraged and inverse ETF products are fueling the overheating of the market. A large influx of funds from individual investors is accompanied by spot purchases by management companies, which in turn causes the 'Wag the Dog' phenomenon that drives stock prices to rise, impeding the market's ability to self-purify.

Despite market overheating and anxiety, expectations for future growth engines such as AI semiconductors and robot industries are still keeping investors glued to the market. The fact that stocks such as Hyulim Robot and Namu Technology are rising with strong buying power enough to trigger VI even amid short-term market downturns suggests that the market is still thirsty for high-growth sectors. However, if these expectations are not supported by actual performance and orders, the stock price boost through simple thematic supply and demand carries the risk that the bubble may burst at any time. In particular, while global investment banks such as Goldman Sachs suggest long-term optimism by raising the KOSPI target, they also warn of the possibility of adjustment due to leverage liquidation, which is something investors should keep in mind.

In the end, the current market volatility is a complex result of a combination of external geopolitical risks and internal concentration of supply and demand. No one can guarantee whether military tensions in the Middle East will end in a short-term conflict or develop into a long-term adverse event that will shake the global supply chain. In addition, whether the semiconductor-centered rally will continue or whether the desire to take profits will erupt along with a correction in technology stocks depends on the supply and demand entities in the market. It is time for investors to be fully aware of the high risks of leveraged products and to take a conservative approach by checking the actual fundamentals of the company rather than simply riding the bandwagon of the index rise. Greater volatility means more opportunities, but we must not forget that the stock market is where you will pay the greatest price the moment you lose your cool.