트럼프의 ‘거래의 기술’이 직면한 시험대: 중동 평화와 사법 리스크의 이중주 > K-wave Trends

President Trump recently exerted an unusually high level of pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt the escalating armed conflict between Iran and Israel. As the Middle East situation spiraled out of control following Israel’s airstrikes on Beirut and Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks, Trump chose to intervene directly, fearing the entire negotiation framework would collapse. He issued a blunt warning to Prime Minister Netanyahu, stating, "If you are not careful, you will be isolated," making it clear that unconditional U.S. support is not eternal. In fact, Trump’s repeated pressure via phone calls led to the cancellation of Israel’s planned large-scale airstrikes against Iran, signaling that the peace agreement centered on Trump’s goal of "no Iranian nuclear weapons" is nearing its final stages.

However, apart from these diplomatic achievements, Trump’s governing style is causing significant friction both domestically and internationally. In particular, his nomination of Todd Blanche, his former personal attorney, as Attorney General is a case that clearly illustrates Trump’s philosophy on personnel. Blanche, a key aide who has defended Trump on the front lines against various legal risks, has caused a major stir in Washington political circles that demand neutrality in the judicial system. The reason even some within the Republican Party predict his confirmation will not be smooth is that the "anti-weaponization fund" he promoted is being criticized for undermining the independence of the judiciary. While this is a strategy for Trump to place loyalists in key positions to solidify his standing, it is simultaneously acting as a stumbling block to governance by facing fierce resistance from the Democratic Party and civil society.

Judicial pushback is not limited to personnel issues. Recently, U.S. courts have issued a series of rulings declaring policies symbolizing the Trump administration’s "America First" agenda illegal. Specifically, the court put a brake on an executive order that sought to increase professional work visa fees by 100 times, labeling it an excessive tax imposition without congressional approval. Beyond this, as key policies of Trump’s second term—such as the abuse of tariff laws and the suspension of immigration screenings for citizens of specific countries—are being invalidated one after another, the administration’s unilateral decision-making style appears to be facing judicial checks. While the White House has expressed its will to push through via appeals, the clash between executive and judicial power is resulting in a slowdown of the major policy reforms Trump is pursuing.

The incident involving the downing of a U.S. military Apache helicopter, which occurred amidst this chaotic political landscape, has become another test for Trump’s diplomacy. While Trump sent a strong message regarding the incident over the Strait of Hormuz, promising an immediate response, it remains unclear whether it will lead to actual military retaliation now that the safety of the pilots has been confirmed. This reveals a delicate balance between Trump’s desire to finalize peace negotiations and the hardliners who wish to maintain military tension. Trump has expressed confidence that negotiations with Iran will yield tangible results within two to three days, which proves he is employing his typical "Art of the Deal"—using the cards of military threat and diplomatic compromise simultaneously to bring the other party to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, Trump’s moves on the global diplomatic stage, coinciding with President Lee Jae-myung’s tour of Europe, are also drawing attention. World leaders visiting Europe for the G7 summit are closely watching for shifts in the U.S. stance amidst the global polycrisis. In particular, the possibility of a meeting between Trump and President Lee Jae-myung is seen as a key indicator for the future of South Korea-U.S. relations. The point to watch is whether the coercive leadership Trump displayed in the Middle East will be applied equally to other diplomatic issues, or if he will show a flexible attitude in line with the European trend that values multilateral cooperation. This will be an important test that goes beyond a simple summit, serving as a gauge for the direction of the international order restructuring that Trump will pursue during his second term.