‘검은 월요일’의 공포와 젠슨 황의 역설: 반도체 랠리의 끝인가, 기회인가 > K-wave Trends

This rapid correction in the market is the result of a complex mix of factors. First of all, in the U.S. stock market last week, disappointment that Broadcom's AI semiconductor growth did not meet the market's high expectations led to a selloff of technology stocks in general. In addition, the US employment indicator, which appeared stronger than expected, stimulated the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and raised market interest rates, which greatly dampened investment sentiment. The fact that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its largest drop since 2020 means that technology stocks, which had risen sharply thanks to the AI ​​craze, have become targets of profit taking. As a result, the domestic stock market was also unable to avoid strong selling pressure centered on technology stocks, with Samsung Electronics offering around 300,000 won and SK Hynix offering around 2 million won.

What is noteworthy in this bearish market is the optimism of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who is visiting Korea. Immediately after meeting with SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won, he expressed an unconventional view that we should rather be happy about the stock market plunge. CEO Hwang expressed his firm belief that AI will become humanity's new infrastructure, like the Internet in the past, and interpreted the decline in stock prices as an opportunity to secure quality assets at a discount. In particular, it reaffirmed its intention to further strengthen its cooperative relationship with SK Hynix and indicated that demand for memory semiconductors, which are the basis of the AI ​​industry, will not decline in the long term. This can be read as a message that we should focus on the intrinsic value of the AI industry rather than short-term supply and demand instability.

Meanwhile, an interesting tectonic shift is being detected in the upper ranks of KOSPI market capitalization. Over the past six months, Samsung Group affiliates, including Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Samsung Life Insurance, and Samsung C&T, led by Samsung Electronics, have entered the upper ranks in market capitalization and taken leadership of the market. In particular, Samsung Electro-Mechanics' market capitalization ranking soared dozens of places thanks to the rapid increase in demand for AI server components. On the other hand, stocks related to rechargeable batteries, shipbuilding, and defense industries that led the market last year showed relatively stagnant stock prices and were pushed out of the top rankings. This is a clear example of how quickly market interest is shifting to physical AI, robots, and the semiconductor ecosystem.

Analysis of undervalued blue-chip stocks is also actively underway. Hana Securities analyzed that despite the recent rise in Samsung C&T's stock price, the value of its holdings, including Samsung Electronics, are still undervalued in the market. In fact, Samsung C&T's PBR remains at 0.7x, which is considered to be in an attractive range compared to other holding companies. In addition, the momentum of nuclear power plant orders from Vietnam and Romania and expectations of performance improvement due to increased investment in semiconductors are enriching Samsung C&T's narrative. In the process of relieving market overheating, companies with such substantial value are likely to play the role of defensive stocks.

Market experts agree that the current slump is not a fundamental damage to the memory semiconductor industry, but rather a process of washing away the fatigue of accumulated overheating. In particular, rather than a hasty conclusion that AI demand is slowing, the prevailing analysis is that it is a supply-demand problem caused by a sudden influx of disappointing listings that do not meet heightened expectations. Some, including LS Securities, warn of the possibility of a further decline in the KOSPI and call for a conservative response, but most experts advise that rather than participating in a sell-off, the current volatility should be used as an opportunity to buy at low prices. Ultimately, the prevailing view is that the market will once again continue to cycle around leading stocks with solid fundamentals.