롤러코스터에 올라탄 한국 증시, ‘금융위기급’ 변동성의 실체와 명암 > K-wave Trends

The number of sidecar activations in the KOSPI market this year has already reached 20, showing the extraordinary phenomenon of breaking a quarter of the total records since statistics were compiled in 2002 in just a few months. This figure is only 6 times different from the annual record of 26 times in 2008 when the global financial crisis struck, and there is great concern that we are recording record-high volatility even before the first half of the year has even passed. In particular, the fact that the sidecar was activated for six consecutive months is an unprecedented record in the history of the stock market, and this proves that the instability of supply and demand rather than market fundamentals is at its peak. The frequent intersection of buying and selling sidecars shaking the market is instilling unpredictable fear in investors.

The extreme concentration of funds in large semiconductor stocks, such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is cited as a key cause of market instability. As the proportion of these companies in the overall market capitalization increases, the 'index distortion phenomenon' in which the minute-by-minute fluctuations in the stock prices of the two stocks determines the entire KOSPI index is deepening. Experts analyze that this concentration of supply and demand centered on large-cap stocks is acting as a conduit to quickly transfer the volatility of individual stocks to the entire index. In addition, recently listed single-stock leverage and inverse products have a direct impact on the supply and demand of semiconductor stocks, contributing to the 'wag the dog' phenomenon that triggers additional purchases when stock prices rise and encourages selling when prices fall.

Externally, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are completely destroying the market's safety net. The heightened military tension between Iran and Israel is stimulating international oil prices and the preference for safe assets, and is dealing an immediate blow to the financial markets of countries that are highly dependent on exports, such as the domestic stock market. In particular, the circuit breaker triggered twice last March, along with the KOSPI's record-breaking decline recorded in the early days of the war, clearly demonstrated how vulnerable the market's fundamentals have become to external shocks. The global financial market is paying close attention to the direction of developments in the Middle East, and if this conflict prolongs, the volatility of the domestic stock market is likely to enter a phase where it is more difficult to predict than it is now.

Even at the individual stock level, the number of volatility mitigation device (VI) activations has reached an average of 11,000 per month, far exceeding the pandemic period, warning of market overheating. The recent rapid ups and downs of robotics industry and AI infrastructure-related stocks in line with Nvidia's actions are a cross-section of how widespread speculative sentiment among investors is. In particular, before expectations for the expansion of the AI ​​ecosystem lead to actual performance improvement, it has become common for stock prices to fluctuate by more than 10% in a short period of time due to concentrated thematic buying. This can be interpreted as a typical market overheating pattern caused by a combination of information asymmetry and individual investors' use of leverage.

On the other hand, global investment banks such as Goldman Sachs are expressing optimism by significantly raising their target prices based on the performance growth potential of the Korean stock market, which is encouraging market confusion. They emphasize the attractiveness of the semiconductor industry's undervaluation and believe there is ample room for further upside, but this, combined with the controversy over the peak, acts as a double signal that stimulates investors' desire to take profits. In the end, the current stock market continues to be a 'news-sensitive market' in which the direction changes rapidly depending on short-term changes in supply and demand and external news rather than long-term value investment. In this environment, investors must consider the leveraged liquidation risk and the shadow of industry polarization hidden behind Goldman Sachs' rosy outlook.