AI 랠리의 종착역인가, 숨 고르기인가: 흔들리는 글로벌 증시의 복합 방정식 > K-wave Trends

The biggest trigger for this market plunge is the unexpected resilience of the U.S. labor market. Initially, the market anticipated a slowdown in employment and expected an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but the actually announced non-farm payrolls in May came out shockingly, exceeding expectations by more than twice. In particular, employment figures for March and April were revised upwards significantly, proving that the labor market is still overheated. This has instilled fear in the market that the Federal Reserve may maintain the high interest rate policy longer or even raise interest rates further to control inflation. Ultimately, as government bond interest rates soared, the burden of financing costs for companies increased, which became a decisive opportunity to reevaluate the valuation of the overall stock market.

The sell-off phenomenon centered on technology stocks and AI-related stocks clearly shows the overheating so far. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's plunge of more than 10% in one day came as a big shock to technology stock investors. As Broadcom presented performance guidance that fell short of market expectations, the 'growth peak theory' raised its head, suggesting that AI data center investment may have peaked. Big tech companies, including NVIDIA, also became targets of profit-taking sales, and semiconductor stocks such as Micron and AMD recorded double-digit declines, adding to downward pressure on the market. This is not simply a problem with the company's performance, but is a result of market anxiety that the financial situation of hyperscalers, which have been making aggressive investments based on debt, may rapidly tighten due to concerns about interest rate hikes.

Our stock market was also unable to avoid the wave of external shocks and was caught up in the fear of ‘Black Monday’. As foreign investors continued to sell for 20 consecutive trading days, the supply and demand environment in the domestic market deteriorated extremely, and the won-dollar exchange rate exceeded 1,560 won, maximizing anxiety in the foreign exchange market. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's visit to Korea and expectations about the 'surprise gift' he mentioned were already reflected in the stock price, so it served as an excuse to take profits and did not prevent the index from falling. The collapse of the KOSPI market cap of 7,000 trillion won in just three trading days is a clear indicator of how strong the downward pressure our market is currently feeling. The sharp decline of large stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is increasing the volatility of the entire index and further weakening investor sentiment.

Geopolitical risk is also an obstacle that amplifies market uncertainty. As the conflict between Iran and Israel resumed, fears of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz once again stimulated oil prices to rise. Although analysis suggests that the previous negotiations between the United States and Iran have not completely collapsed, the volatility of energy prices is a potential threat that could stimulate inflation again. These geopolitical tensions are strengthening the preference for safe assets and acting as a catalyst for funds to move away from risky assets such as stocks. As investors seek to secure cash ahead of Space

Meanwhile, polarization is becoming more evident in the ETF market and investor movement is accelerating. Although the overall size of the futures ETF market has grown, small-cap products are being delisted one after another due to difficulties in managing returns and rollover costs. On the other hand, funds are focused on certain large products such as silver or leveraged products, deepening the imbalance in the market. This suggests that investors are moving toward products with cost-effectiveness and clear profit models rather than vague expectations. In addition, new investment techniques are emerging, such as the launch of futures-type leverage ETFs that use specific stocks such as Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix as underlying assets, and investors' strategies are becoming more sophisticated even during market corrections.