화약고가 된 인도양과 페르시아만: 흔들리는 미국의 패권과 재편되는 중동 안보 > K-wave Trends

The military standoff between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is now crossing a dangerous level, making the term 'limited conflict' meaningless. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired indiscriminately at oil tankers trying to pass without prior permission, and in response, the U.S. military shot down a suicide drone and directly struck Iran's coastal surveillance radar base to continue its military demonstration. Iran, too, has not given in and is repeating a vicious cycle of retaliation by launching numerous ballistic missiles toward U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both sides are officially wary of escalating the war and are putting forward the justification of 'self-defense', but the tension on the ground is predicting an imminent situation that could escalate into an all-out war at any time.

The United States' consideration of separate purchase negotiations with Mauritius to secure control of the Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands, a strategic location in the Indian Ocean, is also evidence of this urgent security situation. This base, which has been controlled indirectly through the UK, is a key base where long-range strategic assets such as B-2 stealth bombers can be operated 24 hours a day, with Iran within striking distance. The Trump administration, which recently put a brake on the sovereignty transfer agreement with the United Kingdom, is seriously concerned about the information leak and military vacuum that will occur if control is transferred to Mauritius, which is friendly with China. This is an example that goes beyond a simple territorial issue and clearly shows how desperate the U.S. strategy to maintain maritime hegemony connecting the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific is.

Meanwhile, the United States is facing the painful reality of a decline in its own shipbuilding capabilities amid global military pressure. While the Chinese Navy is expanding its power and increasing the number of ships at an overwhelming rate, the U.S. shipbuilding industry is unable to meet its construction goals due to a shortage of skilled workers and aging facilities. To overcome this sense of crisis, the U.S. Department of Defense began considering an unconventional plan to utilize the shipbuilding capabilities of allied shipyards such as Korea and Japan. The plan to quickly reinforce insufficient naval power by introducing superior design and construction technology from allies, such as the Daegu-class frigate or Mogami-class frigate, also acknowledges the reality that the United States will no longer be able to maintain its manufacturing capabilities as a sole hegemon.

Amid these changes in the security landscape, the joint naval exercises between Korea and Canada symbolize a new security partnership in the Indo-Pacific region. The fact that Korea's cutting-edge submarines, such as the Dosan Ahn Chang-ho, conducted practical anti-submarine warfare and tactical maneuver training with the Canadian Navy is an expression of our strong will to strengthen interoperability and jointly respond to threats beyond simple exchanges. In particular, the fact that the Canadian crew members who participated in the training sailed together to the RIMPAC exercise shows how closely Western allies are united to protect maritime security. This suggests that Korea is now establishing itself as a key axis of the Indo-Pacific security strategy in response to the offensive of the anti-American camp led by China and Iran.

The conflict spreading throughout the Middle East is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the conflict between Lebanon and Israel. As the cease-fire plan between Israel and Lebanon was virtually abandoned by Hezbollah, the Middle East region is once again becoming a huge powder keg. The United States is trying to suppress Iran's provocations and maintain a ceasefire, but misjudgments and accidental clashes that occur on the ground carry the risk of spiraling out of control at any time. In particular, in a situation where Iran is putting pressure on the United States by mentioning the super-strong blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, peace in the Middle East is moving away like an unrealizable utopia and remains a detonator that will shake up the global economy and security.