S&P 500의 엄격한 문턱과 AI가 재편하는 증시의 지형도 > K-wave Trends

While SpaceX's listing on the New York Stock Exchange is a massive event capturing the attention of global investors, a difficult road is expected before the company can enter the massive enclosure of the S&P 500. The S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee maintains a policy of applying strict, non-negotiable rules even to industry giants like SpaceX. According to these rules, a company must not only have been listed for at least one year but must also endure the physical time required to generate positive net income for four consecutive quarters. Experts analyze that due to massive infrastructure investment costs, it will be difficult for SpaceX to turn an annual profit until 2027, leading to the prevailing view that its inclusion in the index will not occur until at least 2028.

This cautious attitude toward index inclusion gains further credibility when compared to the past case of Tesla. Despite its innovative growth following its 2010 Nasdaq listing, it took Tesla a full decade to meet the profitability requirements demanded by the index. As such, the S&P 500 prioritizes whether a company has a financial structure stable enough to manage massive passive funds over short-term market expectations or buzz. AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, which are also preparing for future listings, face similar hurdles; while their revenue growth is rapid, they are hitting the wall of large-scale investment costs, making it highly likely that a significant amount of time will pass before they are included in the index.

On the other hand, Marvell Technology, which has emerged as a core player in the AI semiconductor ecosystem, has achieved the feat of being included in the S&P 500, becoming a key driver in increasing the weight of tech stocks in the market. Marvell has been recognized for its unparalleled competitiveness in AI chips for data centers and custom semiconductor design, with its stock price nearly tripling this year. In particular, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s praise of Marvell’s networking chips as an essential element for building AI data centers, along with his mention of its potential to become a "trillion-dollar company," served as a decisive momentum. With its production partner, Flex, also joining the index, the market is seeing a restructuring of the index composition centered around key companies that support AI infrastructure.

However, one must not overlook the fact that S&P 500 inclusion is not a "magic card" that guarantees unconditional stock price appreciation. Looking at historical data, while stock prices temporarily surge immediately after the announcement due to an influx of demand, about 60% of these stocks underperform the market average one year after inclusion. This is because "front-running," where investors buy in advance anticipating index inclusion, has become common, meaning that by the time of actual inclusion, expectations are already fully reflected and the upward momentum is exhausted. Therefore, companies like Marvell are now entering a true testing phase where they must prove actual AI market demand and profitability, rather than relying solely on the positive news of index inclusion.

The overall market outlook remains weighted toward growth driven by AI. Based on the conviction that this AI tailwind will continue, Citigroup has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 8,100. How much profit companies can actually generate through AI-related spending will be the key driver for future stock price gains, and to silence bubble concerns, the market has entered a stage where value must be proven through "earnings" rather than "expectations." Despite the volatile macroeconomic environment, global capital's interest in AI infrastructure remains intense, suggesting that the structural growth of the market, led by high-quality tech stocks, will continue for the time being.