금값의 요동치는 6월, 안전자산의 신화는 지속될 것인가 > K-wave Trends

The most direct trigger for this fall in gold prices is the unexpected performance of U.S. economic indicators and the resulting change in expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. As the recently released employment indicators showed strength that exceeded market expectations, there was widespread recognition that the Federal Reserve had no reason to rush to cut interest rates. A cut in interest rates is a key factor that generally increases the investment appeal of gold, which does not generate interest, but if the prospect that the current high interest rate environment will continue for a long time strengthens, the price of gold will inevitably be under downward pressure. In fact, major market indicators such as CME Fed Watch also reflected fears that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy could last longer than expected, encouraging selling across precious metals.

The resurgence of preference for risky assets in international markets also served as a major factor holding back gold prices. As concerns about an economic slowdown have eased somewhat, a 'money move' phenomenon is being observed in which funds that had been focused on gold as a safe asset are moving to risky assets such as the stock market. In addition, as U.S. Treasury yields rebounded and the dollar strengthened, the opportunity cost of owning gold also increased, making it less attractive to invest. Since gold often has an inverse correlation with the dollar, the rapid rise in the value of the dollar set the stage for international gold prices to be adjusted by thousands of dollars per ounce.

Geopolitical risk is still a key driver of market tensions, but its influence is slightly different than in the past. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz and news of armed conflict between Israel and Lebanon, remain uncertain, preventing markets from feeling completely at ease even as gold prices fall. However, rather than simply expressing anxiety, market participants are evaluating each country's governments' diplomatic efforts and the resulting conflicting prospects more calmly. The price of gold fluctuates as peace negotiations progress and deadlock repeats, clearly showing how the market is incorporating geopolitical risks into prices.

The domestic market is in a complex situation with a sharp rise in the won-dollar exchange rate in addition to downward pressure from international prices. Generally, when the exchange rate rises, import prices rise, acting as a buffer to protect against the decline in domestic gold prices to some extent. However, this time, the decline in international prices was so severe that the effect of the exchange rate rise alone was not enough to prevent the overall market weakness. In addition, the price difference between the physical gold exchange and the Korea Exchange (KRX), that is, the gap in the physical market price including distribution margins and taxes, is acting as a factor that further complicates the decline in gold prices felt by investors.

Over a long period of three years, gold prices are still maintaining a remarkable upward trend. Considering the record returns over the past year, it is reasonable to interpret the current correction as a natural profit-taking selling following the steep rise. Market experts agree that the announcement of U.S. economic indicators and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be key variables that will determine the direction of gold prices for the time being. Investors are at a point where they need to reexamine their portfolios by closely examining mid- to long-term macroeconomic trends, that is, inflation pressures and the possibility of a global economic recession, rather than immediate fluctuations.