깐부치킨에서 피어난 'AI 동맹'과 증시의 '검은 월요일' 사이, 반도체는 어디로 가는가 > K-wave Trends

This collaboration between SK Hynix and NVIDIA is evaluated as the culmination of ‘technological combination’ beyond a simple supply contract. The two companies have signed an extensive partnership to develop next-generation memory as well as introduce artificial intelligence throughout the semiconductor design and manufacturing process. In particular, the joint development of ultra-high performance memory that supports NVIDIA's AI platforms 'Vera Rubin' and 'Jetson Tor' is expected to become the core of an ecosystem that encompasses data centers, personal devices, and self-driving robots in the future. In addition, there is a strategic plan to maximize semiconductor yield and production efficiency by actively introducing NVIDIA's software technologies 'Omnibus' and 'CUDA-X' in the manufacturing process. This proves that memory manufacturers are evolving beyond simple hardware suppliers and into core partners for AI solutions.

In contrast to the rosy future of the technology alliance, the stock market faced the brunt of the strong headwinds of the 'Broadcom Shock' and the AI ​​bubble controversy. The sharp decline in semiconductor-related stocks that began in the U.S. stock market also directly hit Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the 'two top semiconductor companies' in the domestic stock market. With the KOSPI index threatening to hit the 8,000 mark, investors are feeling the fear of 'Black Monday' and are unable to hide their bewilderment at the continued decline in stock prices day after day. In particular, among individual investors who belatedly started buying near the high point, there is lamentation over entering the loss zone, which can be interpreted as a signal that the supply and demand, which has been focused on semiconductor stocks, has reached its limit. Due to the unfavorable macroeconomic factors such as the sharp rise in exchange rates and the prospect of interest rate hikes, market investment sentiment is extremely depressed.

Nevertheless, executives and experts in the field agree that the current stock price adjustment is not a result of damage to fundamentals, but a temporary imbalance in supply and demand and profit taking. CEO Jensen Hwang personally hinted that he would expand the scale of procurement with SK Hynix and expressed his optimistic view that the current stock price decline is actually an opportunity to buy at a low price. Securities companies also raised SK Hynix's target stock price and analyzed that the upward trend in memory prices will continue. In particular, since structural bottlenecks in which demand overwhelms supply still exist for next-generation product lines such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), the argument that there is no need to worry about short-term stock price volatility is gaining persuasiveness.

The point to pay attention to in this adjustment phase is the structural change in the memory market. Unlike the past, memory is not a simple general-purpose product, but is evolving into a custom product tailored to the needs of each customer. SK Hynix is ​​securing stability in sales through long-term supply contracts, which will be a powerful weapon to increase performance visibility in the future. In addition, along with the structural rise in HBM prices, the extent of performance improvement is expected to increase further as the NAND flash sector's profitability improves in earnest. The expansion of AI infrastructure is a huge trend that cannot be resisted, and the proportion and status of memory semiconductors in this process have become much more important than before.

However, investors should not lightly ignore the warning messages given by the market. As semiconductor stocks have shown a steep rise reminiscent of the IT bubble in the 2000s, volatility is likely to continue in the future. We must always keep a close eye on signs of a bubble bursting, such as rising interest rates or the failure of AI companies to raise funds. As Kim Min-gyu, a researcher at KB Securities, pointed out, in a bull market, it is easy to fall into the illusion that everyone is making a profit just by looking at the charts, but the actual reality requires stamina to withstand the rough waves of volatility. Therefore, the 'buy and hold' strategy that focuses on the company's fundamental competitiveness and the mid- to long-term growth potential of the AI industry rather than hasty short-term trading is more effective than ever.