반복되는 역사의 메아리: '골드러시'가 묻고 '인프라'가 답하다 > K-wave Trends

The golden age of colonial Joseon was completely accelerated by external needs and policy incentives. At the time, the collapse of the gold standard due to the Great Depression and Japan's industrial-finance policy to finance the war transformed the entire Joseon Dynasty into an arena for speculation, and even ordinary citizens were forced to cling to mining development rights in hopes of making a fortune. This was not simply a movement for economic prosperity, but was also a tragic product of the anxiety of the times and the colonial exploitation structure. Today’s AI craze implies a similar structural craze. However, the target has only shifted from the physical mineral called gold to digital assets such as data and computing power. Vague expectations about technology are attracting speculative capital, and in the process, companies are continuing to take risky gambles by pouring in astronomical amounts of money before proving their essential profit model.

The current AI industry ecosystem is clearly divided into 'companies digging for gold' and 'companies selling shovels and pickaxes'. If AI companies developing foundation models are miners searching for gold, semiconductor chip manufacturers such as NVIDIA, advanced memory companies, and infrastructure companies building data centers are key suppliers who provide essential equipment to the miners. As Harvard University professor Andy Wu analyzed, it is likely that companies that dominate infrastructure rather than model developers will have stronger bargaining power in the long run. Models are easily replaceable and competition is fierce, but AI-powered hardware and power grids have high barriers to entry. The reason why Korean semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are mentioned as winners in the AI era is because they hold the core of this 'shovel and pickaxe' strategy, and they occupy a structure whose value becomes more solid as the AI ecosystem expands.

Behind the AI ​​gold rush, another war is taking place over securing power. Data centers are modern-day gold mines, and the massive power required to run them has become one of our most valuable strategic assets. Traditional manufacturers such as Ford entering the energy storage market and GE Vernova's rapid growth in power equipment orders show that energy has evolved from a simple production factor into a huge commodity and business model in itself. However, this overheating phenomenon is causing side effects such as community backlash and project failure. The inefficiency that arises as too much capital is concentrated in limited energy infrastructure carries the risk of following the path of the past gold rush where many people failed to find gold and fell. Now, only companies that go beyond simply increasing infrastructure and combine technological solutions that ensure energy efficiency and environmental sustainability will be the final survivors.

Capital markets are gradually moving away from flashy technical rhetoric and returning to an era of cold performance. Regulatory authorities' surveillance of companies that only seek to boost stock prices under the pretext of introducing technology is intensifying, to the extent that a new term, 'AI washing', has emerged. Now, rather than simply declaring that AI has been introduced, investors are asking how much the technology actually increases labor productivity and what specific profits it generates in the enterprise value chain. New evaluation indicators such as the 'AI Value Index (AIVI)' proposed by the author suggest that just as ESG has become a standard for corporate management, AI investment also requires an objective and quantified verification system. A method that measures actual output, rather than possession of technology, will be the only filter that can filter out mirage-like companies and improve the health of the industrial ecosystem.

These winds of change are blowing strongly in the financial field as well. As information asymmetry is resolved with the development of mobile finance, insurance planners and financial planners as mere product sellers are losing their place. Now, planners must create new values ​​in ‘psychological counseling’ and ‘integrated asset portfolio management’, which are areas unique to humans that AI cannot provide. This is in line with the fact that during the gold rush era, financial wisdom in managing and operating gold became more important than simply mining it. Future experts can survive only by transforming into 'financial psychological counselors' who coordinate customers' entire lives based on three core competencies: security, investment, and tax savings. Technology is just a tool, and the role of using the tool to design human lives for the better still remains the unique domain of humans.