롤러코스터에 올라탄 증시, '네 마녀의 날' 뒤에 숨겨진 거대한 수급 재편의 서막 > K-wave Trends

The superficial reason for this stock market plunge can be summarized as heightened military tensions in the Middle East and the accompanying weakness in U.S. technology stocks. As international oil prices soared in conjunction with President Trump's hardline remarks against Iran, concerns about inflation once again held back the market. In addition, as key AI semiconductor stocks such as Micron and Nvidia were unable to avoid a decline due to earnings guidance that fell short of expectations and news of large-scale stock issuance, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the 'two top' domestic semiconductor companies, were also hit hard. In particular, due to the nature of the Korean stock market, where semiconductor stocks account for nearly half of the domestic market capitalization, structural weaknesses were clearly revealed, with a correction in global semiconductor stocks immediately leading to an immediate plunge in the KOSPI index.

The biggest variable in terms of supply and demand is SpaceX's listing on Nasdaq, scheduled for the 12th. This IPO, which is expected to raise approximately 112 trillion won in funds, is acting as a 'liquidity black hole' sucking up global investment funds. Institutional investors began to realize tactical profits by selling AI and semiconductor stocks that had previously been highly profitable to raise funds for Space To make matters worse, as the simultaneous expiration date of futures and options coincided with 'Four Witches' Day', program trading volume to liquidate derivatives positions poured into the spot market, dramatically increasing the downward pressure on the index.

Investor sentiment is also extremely depressed. Trading volume and turnover, which are indicators of market vitality, have fallen to their lowest levels this year, meaning most investors are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than actively buying. Nevertheless, some individual investors are using the recent plunge as an opportunity to buy at low prices and are undertaking 'debt investment' using negative bank accounts and credit transactions. This aggressive response is evidenced by the fact that the negative account balances of the five major commercial banks reached the highest level in three years and seven months. However, such leveraged investment carries with it a huge risk of reverse trading if the market fails to rebound, so investors need to take a more cautious approach than ever.

Market experts interpret the current situation as a temporary process of 'supply and demand realignment' rather than a deterioration of fundamentals. There is a cyclical flow of large-scale funds moving from the shipbuilding and defense industries, which have led the stock market, to the space theme, which suggests that investors are not simply denying the entire industry but are adjusting their portfolios in search of new growth engines. Although noise is currently occurring due to the gap between expectations and actual guidance for the AI ​​semiconductor industry, companies' performance forecasts remain solid. Therefore, rather than participating in blind selling in a volatile market, it is time to overhaul the portfolio by taking advantage of the breathing period of leading stocks.